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August 2006 Archives
Dramatic growth slowdown looming for the US economy?

It may be too early to say the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is pointing toward a recession because the downturn in growth is supposed to be "persistent, pronounced, and pervasive" to indicate a recession is coming. But this is what the early warning signs would look like. Looking closely, you can see both the beginnings of a downward trend and an apparent acceleration of the downward trend. The numbers give every appearance of being an especially significant downturn. One of the seven components of the Weekly Leading Index is equity prices, which conventional wisdom tells us are a great leading economic indicator. When the WLI goes down while equities are going higher, does the divergence tell you something big could be developing. If you think you have a particularly good insight, one way or the other, this would be a good time to position yourself financially.
Red State Patriot
Posted August 28, 2006 03:04 AM Permalink
Read more on Articles - Red State Patriot
~ Financial Market Commentary
Be Careful Who and What You Vote For

While walking down the street one day a U.S. Senator was tragically hit by a truck and died. His soul arrived in heaven and was met by St. Peter at the entrance. (If you’re of a secular persuasion, bear with this story for a minute as the point is worthwhile.)
"Welcome to heaven," said St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a small problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, so we're not quite sure what to do with you. Most of your elite peers have chosen to go elsewhere."
"No problem. Just let me in, I'm sure we can work something out." said the Senator.
"Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we’ve decided to do is have you spend one day in Hell and one in Heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity."
Read More »"Really, I've already made up my mind. I want to be in Heaven," said the Senator.
"I'm sorry, but we have our rules."
And with that, St. Peter escorted the Senator to the elevator and down he went, down to hell. The doors opened and he found himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance was a clubhouse and standing in front of it were all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him. Everyone appeared to be very happy and everyone wore evening dress. They ran to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people. They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and imbibed the finest champagne.
Also present was the Devil, who was a really friendly guy, and who had a good time dancing and telling jokes. They were all having such a good time that before he realized it, it was time to go. Everyone gave him a hearty farewell and waved while the elevator rose into the distance. The elevator went up, up, up and the door reopened in heaven where St. Peter was waiting for him.
"Now it's time to visit heaven."
Twenty four hours passed with the senator joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They had a good time and before he realized it, the twenty four hours was gone and St. Peter returned.
"Well, then, you've spent a day in Hell and another in Heaven. Now you have to choose your eternity."
The Senator reflected briefly, then answered: "Well, I would never have said it before, and I don’t want to offend you, I mean Heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in Hell."
So St. Peter escorted him to the elevator and back down, down, down to Hell he went. The doors of the elevator opened and the Senator found himself in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. He saw all his friends, dressed in rags, arguing among themselves, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more garbage fell from above
The Devil eventually came over to him and put his arm around the Senator’s shoulders.
"I don't understand," stammered the Senator. "Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and a beautiful clubhouse. We ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's only a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. This isn’t what I wanted. What happened?"
The devil looked at him, smiled and said, "Yesterday we were campaigning which is a lot different than reality. You saw what you wanted to see and heard what you wanted to hear. Today you voted.”
Red State Patriot « Close It
Posted August 25, 2006 03:23 PM Permalink
Read more on Articles - Red State Patriot
~ Humor
Do Car Sales Indicate An Approaching Recession?

If sales by new-car dealers are down by two percent or more over 12 months, compared to the 12 previous months and adjusted for inflation, then a recession is either underway or set to begin within a few months. The figure stood at minus 2.4 percent when June 2006 sales figures were released by the Census Bureau. The indicator has correctly called five recessions since 1968, and has never warned of a recession that did not occur, according to an analysis by The New York Times.
Read More »A key reason for the concern is the real estate "bubble." Residential real estate assets accounted for more than two-thirds of recent GDP growth, not wages. Now that the real estate boom is coming to an end, or at least appears to be cooling substantially, the potential exists for serious consequences to the U.S. economy.
Consumers understandably tend to look for cheaper alternatives to new cars when the economy begins to show weakness, and right now consumers are faced with historically high fuel prices, a real estate market that has leveled off and declining in some geographic areas, and the gradually declining value of the U.S. dollar. As a result, the price is going up on imported goods which are no longer produced in the United States.
The Federal Reserve masterfully engineered low interest rates which stimulated not only business activity, but real estate development, home re-financing and home equity loans. In the past several years, the consumer has been taking money out of his house just to keep going. Fistfuls of money. Truckloads of it. Over the last two years alone, $1.352 trillion of equity has been extracted - an amount equal to about 10% of annual GDP.
The consumption expenditures that resulted powered much of the economy in recent years. The spending binge, which couldn’t last, is coming to an end. While consumer debt levels have become staggering, Congress still is in no mood to stop spending. Real wage increases have been modest and don’t begin to offset rising employee “benefit” costs, inflation, and higher taxes that were instituted by state governments immediately after the Bush Administration's federal tax cuts.
Aggravating the situation is the growing world demand for petroleum products, political unrest in the Middle East and the Islamic Wars. Congressional liberals have refused for decades to develop any new energy sources or permit construction of nuclear power plants or refineries. If the United States were to experience a national emergency and attempted to make up for lost time and opportunities, it would still take ten years to bring any refinery or nuclear facility into production, assuming environmentalists, state and federal courts, and Congress would acquiesce. As a result, consumers will continue to be pinched harder by higher (and still climbing) fuel prices and taxes, and the slumping real estate market is making it more difficult to extract any asset equity to purchase a vehicle (or other durable goods).
Decide for yourself if you think the United States is on the verge of a recession. In any event, it would be wise to begin to eliminate any accumulated household debt as quickly as possible. You do not want to run out of money before your bills are paid (if you are young), and you definitely do not want to run out of money before you die (if you are enjoying the final years of a good life).
Remember, the severity of any economic downturn cannot be predicted.
Red State Patriot « Close It
Posted August 22, 2006 04:27 PM Permalink
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~ Economics and Business
The Mystery of Hate

Hi all,
For those of you who don't remember, my name is David Bryn, from Israel, and I participated in the Erasmus exchange program on the fall semester of 2005. As most of you probably know we have a war going on in our area. The point of this email is not to open a discussion about which side is right or wrong. About two weeks ago, an Israeli publicist by the name of Yair Lapid published his weekly column. After reading his column, I decided to translate and send it to all my friends outside of Israel, since I think it sheds a little light about our feelings here as Israelis in the wild Middle East.
Read More »The Mystery of Hate
by Yair Lapid
Hundreds of years of fighting, six and a half wars, billions of dollars gone with the wind, tens of thousands of victims, not including the boy who laid down next to me on the rocky beach of lake Karon in 1982 and we both watched his guts spilling out. The helicopter took him and until this day I do not know whether he is dead or survived. All this, and one cannot figure it out.
And its not only what happened but all that did not happen - hospitals that were never built, universities that were never opened, roads that were never paved, the three years that were taken from millions of teenagers for the sake of the army. And despite all the above, we still do not have the beginning of a clue to the mystery of where it all started:
Why do they hate us so much?
I am not talking about the Palestinians this time. Their dispute with us is intimate, focused, and it has a direct effect on their lives. Without getting into the "which side is right" question, it is obvious that they have very personal reasons not to stand our presence here. We all know that eventually this is how it will be solved: in a personal way, between them and us, with blood sweat and tears that will stain the pages of the agreement. Until then, it is a war that could at least be understood, even if no sane person is willing to accept the means that are used to run it by.
It is the others. Those I cannot understand. Why does Hassan Nasralla, along with tens of thousands of his supporters, dedicate his life, his visible talents, his country's destiny, to fight a country he has never even seen, people he has never really met and an army that he has no reason to fight?
Why do children in Iran, who can not even locate Israel on the map (especially because it is so small), burn its flag in the city center and offer to commit suicide for its elimination? Why do Egyptian and Jordanian intellectuals agitate the innocent and helpless against the peace agreements, even though they know that their failure will push their countries 20 years back? Why are the Syrians willing to stay a pathetic and depressed third world country, for the dubious right to finance terror organizations that will eventually threaten their own country's existence? Why do they hate us so much in Saudi-Arabia? In Iraq? In Sudan? What have we done to them? How are we even relevant to their lives? What do they know about us? Why do they hate us so much in Afghanistan? They don't have anything to eat there, where do they get the energy to hate?
This question has so many answers and yet it is a mystery. It is true that it is a religious matter but even religious people make their choices. The Koran (along with the Shariaa - the Muslim parallel to the Jewish Halacha) consists of thousands of laws, why is it that we occupy them so much?
There are so many countries who gave them much better reasons to be angry. We did not start the crusades, we did not rule them during the colonial period, we never tried to convert them. The Mongolians, the Seljuk, the Greeks, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Ottomans, the British, they all conquered, ruined and plundered the whole region. We did not even try, so how come we are the enemy?
And if it is identification with their Palestinians brothers then where are the Saudi Arabian tractors building up the territories that were evacuated? What happened to the Indonesian delegation building a school in Gaza strip? Where are the Kuwaiti doctors with their modern surgical equipment? There are so many ways to love your brothers, why do they all prefer to help their brothers with hating?
Is it something that we do? Fifteen hundreds years of anti-Semitism taught us - in the most painful way possible - that there is something about us that irritates the world. So, we did the thing everyone wanted: we got up and left. We have established our own tiny little country, where we can irritate ourselves without interrupting others. We didn't even ask a lot for it. Israel is spread on a smaller territory than 1% of the territory of Saudi-Arabia, with no oil, no minerals, without settling on another existing state's territory. Most of the cities that were bombed this week were not plundered from anyone. Nahariya, Afula, and Karmiel did not even exist until we established them. The other katyusas landed on territories over which no one ever questioned our right with regards to them. In Haifa there were Jews already in the 3rd century BC and Tiberias was the place where the last Sanhedrin sat, so no one can claim we plundered them from anyone.
However, the hatred continues. As if no other destiny is possible. Active hatred, poisoned, unstoppable. Last Saturday the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, called again "to act for the vanishing of Israel"' as if we were bacteria. We got used to it so much that we don't even ask why.
Israel does not hope and never did for Iran to vanish. As long as they wanted, we had diplomatic relations with them. We do not have a common border with them or even any bad memories. And still, they are willing to confront the whole western world, to risk a commercial boycott, to hurt their own quality of life, to crush what's left of their economy and all that for the right to passionately hate us.
I am trying to remember and cannot: have we ever done something to them? When? How? Why did he say in his speech that "Israel is the main problem of the Muslim world"? More than a billion people (are) living in the Muslim world, most of them in horrible conditions. They suffer from hunger, poverty, ignorance, bloodshed that spreads from Kashmir to Kurdistan, from dying Darfur to injured Bangladesh. How come we are the main problem? How exactly are we in their way?
I refuse to accept the argument that claims "that is just the way they are". They said it about us so many times that we have learned to accept this expression. There must be another reason, some dark secret that because of it, the citizens of South Lebanon allow to rouse the quiet border, to kidnap the soldiers of an army that has already retreated from their territory, to turn their country into a wasteland exactly at the time they finally escaped twenty years of disasters.
We got used to telling ourselves worn expressions - "it's the Iranian influence", or "Syria is stirring behind the scenes" - but it is just too easy (an) explanation. Because what about them? What about their thoughts? What about their hopes, loves, ambitions and their dreams? What about their children? When they send their children to die, does it seem enough for them to say that it was all worth while just because they hate us so much?
Hat tip: Suzanne Rothfeld « Close It
Posted August 19, 2006 08:50 PM Permalink
Read more on Israel and Middle East
So, Where Do We Stand?

So, Where Do We Stand?
I always like it when I don’t have to read all the way to the last paragraph to get to the bottom line, so today we begin with the bottom line – actually a number of them covering everything from the Middle East to the Congressional elections in November, 2006.
Beginning with the Middle East, it seems clear that the Hezbollah offensive recently staged in Lebanon for the entertainment of the Muslim ummah (worldwide community) had the principal goal of re-establishing a pro-Syrian-Iranian regime in Lebanon. The Iranian-Syrian strategy to construct a third wing to the Tehran-Damascus axis, a third wing which successfully encloses Israel with hostile Islamic military and terrorist forces, was an unmitigated success.
Israel’s retaliation for Hezbollah’s cross-border-incursion and the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and killing eight others (responding to the bait) ended once again in Israel’s portrayal as the aggressor. Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon, a tentative one-sided compliance with a unanimous anti-semitic United Nations resolution - but without recovery of their missing soldiers and without maintaining control of the ground for which they shed considerable Israeli blood.
Predictably, Iran and Syria will not be held accountable for the most recent conflict and will pay no price for their sponsored aggression.
Read More »It quickly became clear that Israel’s military response into Lebanon was tactically questionable (inept). With the knowledge that there was nothing to fear from the United States or Europe, Arab nations quickly changed sides in the conflict – supporting Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah. The United States was the biggest loser in the tide change of Middle East sentiment, losing all believability, either as a credible force or a deterrent in the Arab world.
The United Nations cease-fire resolution, described more accurately as a pause-fire resolution, has been hailed by the main stream media as a monumental success. The Internet blogosphere expressed profoundly the opposite reaction. While the United Nations resolution was not passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter and does not have the authority of international law, it does expose Israel to condemnation if Israel attempts to respond to, or defends itself from, future Hezbollah provocations. Probably the most alarming fact, from an Israeli perspective, is who in the United Nations has been given the responsibility for determining compliance. That gem of negotiation has been placed in the hands of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, a man historically and notoriously anti-Semitic.
Inexplicably, the UN resolution, which the United States both sponsored and voted to adopt, makes no mention of either Syria or Iran. Without their support, Hezbollah would not exist let alone wage war against Israel. By ignoring Hezbollah's sponsors in the conflict, the UN resolution sends an unambiguous message to Iran and Syria that they can continue to equip and command terrorist proxy armies in Lebanon, the West Bank, Iraq and anywhere else with impunity, and foment violent unrest without fear of economic or military consequences. History has already been written that Hezbollah's aggression against Israel, and Israel's military action in defense of its sovereign territory, were morally equivalent.
The fate of the two IDF soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, was relegated to one paragraph in the UN resolution preamble, which links the return of the Israeli soldiers to the release of Lebanese terrorists held in Israel. The resolution all but eliminates any possibility of the soldiers returning home.
Then there is the question of an arms embargo and disarming Hezbollah, which the resolution puts off to some future date when Israel and Lebanon can agree to the terms of a "permanent cease-fire." Should that ever happen, it places the power to oversee an arms embargo against Hezbollah in the hands of the Lebanese government, of which Hezbollah is a prominent member. Can you see anything wrong with this picture?
Remember, the United States sponsored this UN resolution.
The UN resolution goes on to legitimize the claim of Lebanese sovereignty over the Shaba Farms, or Mount Dov - a vast area on the Golan Heights that separates the Syrian Golan from the Upper Galilee. The Shaba Farms area, long disputed between Israel and Syria, has now been placed on the UN negotiating table. By doing so, the UN rewarded Hezbollah's aggression by giving international legitimacy to its demand for territorial aggrandizement via acts of aggression. It must be an established law of the known universe - Israel can never expect the world to recognize any of its borders as final.
The diplomatic world refuses to acknowledge what should be obvious, i.e., Hezbollah and Syria are one in the same (appendages that have the same Islamic head - Iran), and Hamas and Syria will soon be one in the same, after remnants of the Palestinian Authority have been absorbed into Hamas - all with a unity of purpose and action. Since Hezbollah will neither disarm voluntarily, nor permit a search for hidden weapons stockpiles in Lebanon, it is hard to imagine – inconceivable more likely - that Iran and Syria will not reinitiate the conflict after re-supplying Hezbollah and Hamas.
If one needs proof of the inevitable, there is the nagging fact that no Islamic militant force, throughout recorded history, has ever voluntarily disarmed. In fact, no rational human being voluntarily disarms, particularly in the face of adversity or religious quest. In the Islamic case, Muslims are entirely rational. Muslims consistently make rational decisions in their own self interest. Prophet Mohammad is a profound unifying force and the Qur’an is their roadmap to the afterlife. No Muslim will ever voluntarily or willingly abandon fervent core beliefs, or give up the ability or forsake the tactics, to wage war against infidels. Any opinion to the contrary is worth what you paid for it. You would have better luck getting a “Born Again” Christian to forsake Jesus Christ – and that day will come if Islamic fascism is not stopped.
Military historians may someday show that Israel emulated the failed politically correct warfare strategy of the United States in Iraq (arguably the right war, but the wrong tactics). Modern intellectuals, political opportunists and those without military training have lost sight of history and the inviolate facts - all wars, without exception, are won with and by massive collateral damage, not by avoiding collateral damage. Battles can occasionally be won by precision strikes, but not wars – and particularly not wars for survival. The last man standing wins. It has always been and always will be, and the Islamic Wars will not end until the last man is standing. Muslims see their conflict, first with Israel and then Europe and the West, in exactly that light, supremely confident the last man standing will be a Muslim. Someday, liberals will realize that Islamic terrorism cannot be stopped with political correctness, only by overwhelming remorseless force. Until such a day that realists instead of opportunists warm the seats of Congress, U.S. State Department and the Kinneset, thousands if not millions will die at the altar of secular liberal fantasies.
War between Islam and Israel has but one purpose - to eliminate the nation-state of Israel. Ten thousand square miles of Jewish nationhood, established by the UN in 1948, has been under relentless assault by five million square miles of Muslim dominance, not counting Iran. It would be a really good thing if the Israeli sleeper were to awaken.
The logical extension of the United Nations' cumulative actions, after Israel has become a footnote in history, is to acquiesce to (foster) the eventual Islamic subjugation of France, Spain and Great Britain. If you reside in Europe, you’re next. Hopefully what remains of European civilization is paying attention. Those who are not concerned today can avail themselves of the southern United States border tomorrow or at their convenience. It is probably already too late for France, themselves descendants of Muslim occupiers centuries ago.
Equally troublesome is the speculation that the United States’ State Department must have intended by their actions to give the advantage and ultimate victory to Islam (Iran). Lacking additional information, why else would the United States sponsor a UN cease-fire resolution before Israel had the opportunity to dismantle or seriously degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities? Assuming Israel is an ally, why did the United States of America not do more – much more? Having failed that test, why would the U.S. State Department orchestrate an unprecedented defeat for Israel at the hands of the United Nations? It is doubtful a U.S. government spokesman would frame the events this way, but they are just about the only ones in the world who would not.
Iran’s stated desire to annihilate Israel remains intact as a viable objective.
When all is said and done, Iran has accomplished its strategic objectives, i.e., reinvigorating Syrian dominance, isolating Jordan, reaching out and absorbing Hamas, rebuking the Arab League, fermenting Iraq’s collapse in a civil war of Iranian-instigated internal strife, undermining the internal stability of the governments of Great Britain and Europe, and ultimately unleashing Iran’s nuclear plans to establish a Muslim caliphate over the entire region by force of nuclear arms.
Can you think of any reason, other than wishful thinking, why Iran’s nuclear plans will not prevail?
Iranian strategic planning seems to have accurately calculated that Hezbollah would briefly lose control over southern Lebanon in the current military engagement. Iran had every reason to expect that with the help of the United Nations, Hezbollah would later reacquire and strengthen its control over Lebanon in traditional Islamic fashion, this time with UN legitimacy. Hezbollah will have sacrificed only a few hundred square miles in southern Lebanon which can easily be reacquired at a later date. In the interim, Iran and Syria will consolidate their gains. Hezbollah will set about to eliminate any remnants of the Lebanese Democracy movement known as the Cedars Revolution. Once Hezbollah has purged Lebanon of its remaining Christian influences, Shia Muslims in the Middle East and elsewhere will carefully prepare for a wider and bloodier war with Israel, from all sides- and from within.
Iran and Syria correctly anticipated a lack of support for Israel in the main stream media and had no fear of a United States Congress consumed with self-interest - not unlike a pig at a trough of fresh slop. The European Union remains gripped in self-loathing and Islamophobia. At last sighting, the European Union, led by France – was seen flying in ever decreasing concentric circles in the process of assimilation by the Islamic Borg, only one small step by mankind behind Lebanon.
The outcome in Lebanon was all but inevitable. Even if the United States or Europe had seriously considered interfering in the conflict initiated by Hezbollah with Israel, Iran had every intention of using Muslim proxies embedded in European and United States populations as a distraction.
The European Union, to this day, will not label Hezbollah a terrorist organization.
The terrorist plot to take down numerous commercial airline flights over the Atlantic Ocean, and its timing, was unlikely a coincidence, regardless of what we’ve been led to believe about its homegrown origins. The terrorist plot was fortunately foiled, but from Iran’s perspective, as it turned out, it really wasn’t necessary and the distractions served their purpose. Muslims will rampage none-the-less to keep Great Britain preoccupied and cause the uninformed to question every government anti-terrorist move in self-doubt.
No one has to imagine the worst case scenario for western civilization. It is becoming a reality in our lifetime - a nuclear-armed Iranian-Syrian-Lebanese Islamic axis complete with international legitimacy, which completely envelopes Israel and is brazenly dedicated to Israel’s elimination (annihilation), and an axis of Islamic fascism whose hegemony now directly or indirectly controls Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Only one of two alternative explanations correlates easily with UN actions:
a. The United Nations has no intention of intervening in any conflict between Israel and Islam except as necessary to prevent Israel from gaining the upper hand, or
b. UN member nations choose to believe the imposed Hezbollah-Israeli ceasefire will somehow forestall a wider conflict in the Middle East, and that acquiring most of Lebanon will somehow magically satiate Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
It appears the Iranians closely studied the history of WWII, learning from the successes and mistakes of the Third Reich. If Adolph Hitler were still with us, he would commend Ahmadinejad.

Red State Patriot « Close It
Posted August 19, 2006 12:56 AM Permalink
Read more on Articles - Red State Patriot
~ Israel and Middle East
Predictable Trajectory

Posted August 15, 2006 11:34 PM Permalink
Read more on Featured Cartoons
~ National Defense and National Security
Does any serious person believe that Iran will surrender its nuclear ambitions?

Does any serious person believe that Iran will surrender its nuclear ambitions?
The fact is, US policy makers have little understanding of the mindset in the Islamic world. They may think they understand it on an intellectual level, but they do not have the "feel" for what they are dealing with. Granted, this requires that they abandon virtually every instinctive standard of human interaction into which they have been acculturated over the course of their lives, but it is not an insurmountable task. T.E. Lawrence achieved prominence due to his ability to get inside their thought processes, and convey them to his superiors.
This current lack of insight has profound ramifications for our world in the coming near days. The western world is fast approaching a showdown with Iran's president Ahmadinejad, over what may be the most serious issue of the new millennium, nuclear proliferation, coupled with Islamic terrorism. To the western mind, Ahmadinejad is not acting rationally. He recently called Israel a "permanent threat" to the Middle East that will "soon" be liberated. He also questioned again whether the Holocaust really happened, following up on his earlier denial of the Holocaust. He has recently not only defied the IAEA, but openly declared success at Uranium enrichment, as well as promising to increase his countries rate of production of enriched uranium.
Read More »It is shocking to many why he would be so deliberately provocative, while he should be acting in a fashion to reassure the international community that he is not a threat, so as to forestall diplomatic action, sanctions or even a military strike by the US he could not possibly win. Conversely, he seems to be doing everything in his power, from testing missiles and torpedo's to goading the West's sensitivities, in what appears to be a campaign to pick a fight. He is making statements that clearly place him on a war footing with Israel, and in violation of the UN onus about non-defensive warfare. He also said recently, "Like it or not, the Zionist regime is heading toward annihilation," "The Zionist regime is a rotten, dried tree that will be eliminated by one storm" , Ahmadinejad said at the opening of a conference in support of the Palestinians, where he also said "The land of Palestine, (referring to the British mandated territory that includes all of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank) "will be freed soon". In October he said Israel should be "wiped off the map."
The pundit class is rife with speculation as to his true motives or game plan is. They optimistically label his behavior as jockeying for a diplomatic position rather than the actual seeking out of violent confrontation. They are wrong. He really is picking a fight, and he will continue progressively more outrageous behavior until he gets it. The puzzle which is boggling the minds of the Western "experts", is why he should want a fight which is sure to annihilate him, cause grievous harm to his country, and what could he possibly gain?
The answer to that question lies in the Muslim mind. Ahmadinejad lives in world steeped with false pride in their culture, their place in the world, their accomplishments and even their relationship with God. The Umah believe that their religion, its precepts and cultural mandates are the final word from God as to how he wishes, no demands that humans live. Despite their believed perfection, the Muslim world has seen its world position do nothing but wane, since the Western Renaissance. Wherever you find Islam as the dominant religion and culture, you find a backward society with a dismal economy, totalitarian rule, little concept of human rights, and much misery. By contrast, those societies the Muslims believe that God retrograded and outmoded through his revelations to Mohammed, the Christian world and the Jews, enjoy freedom, prosperity, respect, and technological preeminence. Even people "not of the Book", such as the Buddhists', Shinto'ists, Hindu and Atheists, seem to be pulling away from the Muslim world and leaving them farther behind than ever.
While this trend is not new, inescapable awareness of it, in the Muslim world, is. With the advent of the information age, to say the Muslim world is reeling with "Future Shock", is a bit like describing a triple amputation as a "flesh wound". They have spent hundreds of years believing themselves to be "the best", but the images coming over the new Computers (they did not invent), on the televisions (they did not invent), through the satellite dishes (they did not manufacture or invent), from satellites (they did not launch), clearly show the world is leaving their culture behind. Even worse, those images show that the world is outstripping them by engaging with gusto in virtually all the activities and behaviors they believe are forbidden by God. Their whole belief system and way of life are in crises.
Ahmadinejad is the leader of the one country in the world, where Islamic Fundamentalism triumphed over modernity, establishing Sharia as the way of life. According to Islam, this should have made Iran God's favorite country. Ever since the end of the Caliphate, devout Muslims have been told that their lands and countries have been suffering because they were not sufficiently in compliance with Gods laws. With the overthrow of the Shah, and the rise of Iran's theocracy, it has become the leading example of Islam as a form of governance as well as an ideological paradigm, in much the same was as the USSR was the showcase for the actual application of the principles of Communism. With the theocracy in place in Iran for 30 years now, and with the successful transition of power from Ayatollah Ruyallah Khomeini to Ayatollah Khameni, as well as several sets of turnover in the governmental institutions, there should have been enough time for the "benefits" of strict Muslim rule to have manifested themselves. They have not. The people are more poor than ever. They lack comforts and luxuries. They do not enjoy world preeminence in economics, science, freedom, respect or worst of all, happiness. If the people of Iran look upon the lifestyle of the rest of the world, and see that they envy even some of what we have in our lifestyle, it cuts to the very core of their belief in their way of life. A couple of years ago, it looked as though Iran might be on the verge of another revolution, one that sought a more secular way in the world.
Ahmadinejad, and the clerics, know that if Iran's revolution collapses, Islam itself will be discredited in the same way that Communism failed with the collapse of its test case.
However, if Ahmadinejad can provoke the West into attacking, perhaps even destroying the regime in Iran, Muslims around the world will be able to spend the next 2000 years claiming that the Great Islamic Revolution in Iran would have succeeded, and been the envy of the world had it not been destroyed by the unbelievers and the Dhimmi. Islamic governance as a political movement will be saved from being discredited, and Iran will be held up as the martyr. This is his true game; better he and his country die as martyrs, than to slowly sink into discredited obsolescence and disrepute. He will force this fight, even if he knows it will bring utter annihilation. He will force this confrontation even if he is forced to use nuclear weapons to do it. The more pain and damage he inflicts on the Western World in the process of getting us to destroy him, the greater will his reputation and the "legend of Islamic Revolutionary Greatness" will be 600 years from now, when Muslims are bitterly weeping over the lost greatness brought to the Umah by Revolutionary Government in Iran, "back in it's heyday".
Sadly, we cannot defeat his goals by refusing engage in his conflict. The longer we delay, the greater his reputation will grow, and the more we will suffer before being forced to take him down. The only way to attack his long term goals is to openly challenge him on his motives. If western world leaders are willing to take to the airwaves, and the printed page, and the internet, and even leafleting in Arabic, they must call him out on his agenda. They must be willing to say, "We are greatly saddened that this little man, and this little country, are going to force us to bring great suffering to their people, just to hide the fact that they and their revolution have failed". "The world knows, it is obvious, that Islamic Fundamentalism is a failure." "It has failed its people in Iran, in Afghanistan, in Saudi Arabia, in Iraq, and in Egypt". "Now, simply to distract faithful Muslims from the failure of this ideology, its leaders are driving the people into a suicidal confrontation, simply to avoid having to admit failure". "We will regret being forced to kill the loud small dog, simply because it cannot acknowledge it never achieved the status of a large dog".
This will make it more difficult for the Muslim scholars of the future to proclaim the might of the "lost Great Revolution".
TECHNOLOGY AND TACTICS
Having discussed Ahmadinejad's intentions and strategic aims, let us now turn to his the tactics and technology he will use.
As Iran continues to enrich Uranium using the centrifuge method, the world is failing to realize the nature and extent of the threat due to a lack of imagination. Most of the strategic analysts are assessing the danger of a Nuclear Iran in terms of traditional methods of use of nuclear weapons and devices. They believe that in order for Iran to present an actual threat, they must have a functioning nuclear device, and a delivery system to place that device on or near its target area. They also believe that Iran does not pose a potential threat without the means to produce substantial quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The experts also are operating under the classic assumption that a country with only one nuclear device, or very few, would be unwilling to deploy them in that they would be unwilling to part with their country's single greatest military asset. In the preceding section Irans aims are laid out, the point of this section is to lay out a possible scenario by which Iran and its terrorist proxy agents could carry out a nuclear strike on the US or its allies, bypassing all current safeguards that we assume are protecting us from nuclear terrorism.

Iran has a delivery system that bypasses all known or anticipated means of delivering a weapon, or smuggling a weapon into a western country.
The key to this nuclear strike lies in the enrichment technology Iran is hell bent on pursuing. It is not in delivery systems. Iran does not need a rocket capable of delivering a nuclear device. Nor do they need a device small enough to be man portable, or advanced enough to deliver by air. There has been much written about delivery of a device aboard ship, or aboard a commercial shipping container, so I assume that we have advanced safeguards to protect or reduce the threat of delivery by these systems. I have spoken with some of you about my beliefs regarding the capabilities of orbital satellites and the capacity to scan ships at sea, for signs of telltale emissions, and where I got that knowledge of capabilities. However my current concerns supersede earlier speculation, and my concerns are based on the nature of nuclear weapons themselves. Historically, the development of the Atomic Bomb as a weapons system was driven not only by the technology, but also by the tactical and strategic nature of it's intended use. The US developed the bomb during a total war with the Axis powers, equally advanced industrial societies fully geared to war with the US. We discovered that we could construct a "gun type" device that would detonate if fueled with very highly enriched uranium (VHEU). However, our methods of enriching uranium were primitive, and very time consuming. We could not manufacture enough of the very highly enriched uranium (VHEU), quickly enough, to deploy the multiple numbers of these "gun type" devices in a fashion that would have a strategic impact on the war. Therefore, we also developed the "implosion" type device, which would also achieve nuclear detonation using uranium with a cheaper, faster, more readily produced, less enriched uranium (HEU). We deployed one of each type device over Japan, the "gun type" device was dubbed "little boy" and "implosion" device was called "Fat Man".
Iran is not seeking a large quantity of deployable weapons, intended to be placed on ballistic missiles, bombers, or submarines. They do not face the strategic constraints of a real world power, since they are not trying to win a war. Their objective is simply to take lives and cause devastation. They do not operate on a strategic or even tactical time line, since they are not seeking to remove the capability for retribution. Consequently, their motives liberate their means and methods. Iran can afford to spend any amount of time enriching uranium, so that even a tiny trickle of VHEU is sufficient for their purposes. They will slowly acquire enough VHEU for two "gun type" devices. The gun device is painfully simple, it is simply driving a VHEU projectile into a VHEU receptacle with great force (picture a baseball striking a glove). The VHUE baseball is placed with a driving charge at the rear end of a cannon, and the VHUE glove is sealed into the muzzle of the cannon. When the cannon is fired, the nuclear weapon detonates. Cannons are very easy to build from easily acquired components. Since this is not to be used strategically, and time is not a constraint, the Iranians can deploy the device in a non-traditional manner.
They can build the device on the site of its intended detonation.
In Iran they would manufacture the VHUE, and shape "the baseball" and the "glove" to desired specification. They would then smuggle these two components into the US via separate routes through innumerable imaginable means. Bear in mind that these two items contain no explosives, electronics, fuels or even have any bomb like qualities, they are just machined hunks of solid metal. Meanwhile, in an apartment rented in New York, or Los Angeles, or Chicago, or Miami, or Atlanta, two tenants will begin assembling the cannon in the middle of the living room. The apartment will be in an upscale area and the rent will be fully paid. The two nuclear scientists will have a very respectable demeanor and will behave as expected for young professionals. No one will ever look into their condo. When the device is assembled from easily obtained local components, the two hunks of VHUE, "ball" and "glove" will be brought into the city, and attached to the device. Simultaneously to this activity, other nuclear scientists will have been assembling an identical device, from identical components, at a highly secured location inside Iran such as the Isfahan facility. When both devices are complete, The Iranians will transport the Isfahan device out into the desert and detonate it to make sure it works. The world will see the blast, and there will be all kinds of diplomatic furor. The Iranians will announce themselves to be a nuclear power, and will demand some kind of ridiculous concessions from the Western World or they will "destroy the infidels and unbelievers". In all likelihood, even if the demands are met, they will be followed by yet more demands in a ratcheting cycle ending in the detonation of the device. When we fail to comply, the two or three nuclear scientists in America will set the timer on the device in the condo, and return home to Iran. The US will suffer the worlds first incidence of nuclear terrorism, and will respond in fashion dictated by the whims of whatever administration holds power. Even if the attack is suicidal, generating an overwhelming response from the US, the Iranian regime will consider it to have achieved a victory, simply in the death and destruction wrought in the terror attack, and establish Iran as the return of the global influence of a Caliphate centered in Iran, even if only for a moment.
By David Roth
August 10, 2006 « Close It
Posted August 11, 2006 02:37 PM Permalink
Read more on Articles - David Roth
~ Islam, Terrorism and WMD
Its Scope was Ruthlessly Ambitious

MSNBC aired on August 10th a news analysis published by the Associated Press (AP) entitled, “Thwarted plot may have been ‘the Big One.’” That AP story began, “Its scope was ruthlessly ambitious, causing destruction officials say would have been “unimaginable.” Now, the rest of the story.
The foiled plot was apparently a plan to destroy, with liquid explosives carried in hand luggage, ten or more international commercial passenger aircraft in flight, all bound from the United Kingdom to the United States. United, American and Continental Airlines were targeted and the flights were scheduled to be in the air at approximately the same time. Each aircraft would have been transporting hundreds of passengers.
The plotters, Muslims who ranged in age from 17 to 35, planned to use false-bottomed sports drink bottles to bring the liquid explosives on board. The terrorists had intended to combine the separated liquids mid-flight to create an explosive solution. The liquid to be used was likely a peroxide-based solution, similar in appearance to water or liquid eyeglass lens cleaner, which could have been detonated by an electronic device as simple as a disposable camera or a portable digital music player.
Counterterrorism officials speculated that the plot not only bore the fingerprints of al-Qaida, but may have been “the Big One” planned for the anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. According to the AP article, 24 people (predominantly Pakistani Muslim), were arrested and jailed and five remain at large. Terror threat levels were raised in the United States to their highest levels and airport security procedures intensified. Hundreds of flights were canceled worldwide. Dozens of people, possibly as many as 50, could be involved in the plot.
The magnitude of this attack, had it been successful, would have been huge. The terrorist scheme had the classic al-Qaida signature of a well coordinated series of simultaneous attacks. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff reinforced those sentiments, saying the attack “… was sophisticated. It had a lot of members and it was international in scope.” For the past several days, the FBI has feverishly looked for any potential ties to terrorists in the U.S., but hasn’t found any.
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As Americans, we have arrived at the point, hopefully a defining moment, when every American should pause and take stock. Even though an investigation is under way in Europe and the United States which will undoubtedly confirm what we have already been told, it is absolutely irrelevant that the terrorist plot was suggestive of al-Qaida.
The primary issue – the only issue - is that the plot was real. It was fermented, carefully planned, and well orchestrated by highly-trained Muslims. The plot was international in scope and the probable death toll would have been in the thousands. At risk was the continued viability of safe, reliable international aviation and commerce. At least one of the plotters had attended a terrorist training camp in Pakistan, and more than one of the accused had already prepared a martyrdom suicide tape.
A quick review of recent history is always helpful. Since the WTC attack on September 11, 2001 which killed approximately 3000 people and injured thousands more, many for life, successful Muslim attacks on innocent people have included suicide bombers who killed 52 people in London on July 7, 2005; 58 innocent people who died in two attacks in Istanbul, Turkey, in 2003; and 202 tourists and citizens were ruthlessly killed in Bali in 2002.
Adherents of Islam killed 191 people in Madrid on March 11, 2004 and chose to blow themselves up a few days later when police were closing in to make arrests. Before 2001, recall the first Muslim attempt to bring down the World Trade Center in 1993. Before that was the Munich Olympics in 1972 during which athletes were kidnapped and massacred. The U.S. Embassy in Iran was sacked by Muslims in 1979 and hostages were held for over one year. Recall the numerous kidnappings of Americans in Lebanon during the 1980’s. The U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut was blown up in 1983 resulting in a tremendous loss of life. The cruise ship Achille Lauro was attacked in 1985 and in the process, a 70-year passenger in a wheelchair was thrown overboard and died. TWA Flight 845 was hijacked in Athens in 1987 and U.S. Navy diver trying to protect the passengers was killed. Pan Am Flight 103 was blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988 resulting in 270 deaths. The U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed in 1998. Four airliners were hijacked in 2001 - three were used as missiles to take out the World Trade Center towers and Pentagon. The fourth was diverted and crashed by the passengers. Thousands of people were killed. No doubt you can think of many others including Richard Reid, the shoe-bomber and an attack at the Los International Airport ticket counters. Do you remember hearing recently about college graduate Mohammed Reza Taheri-azar who slammed a rented SUV this March into a crowd of students at the University of North Carolina, hitting nine. The Iranian-born 22-year-old told the 9-1-1 dispatcher that he was attempting to “punish the government of the United States for [its] actions around the world.” In court days later, he said he was “thankful for the opportunity to spread the will of Allah.” And then there was Naveed Haq, hiding behind potted plants. Naveed Haq laid in wait and abducted a 14-year-old girl he could use as a hostage to enter the Seattle Jewish Federation. With a gun in her back, he pushed his way past security and through the door. He coldly, deliberately shot six women. When a wounded woman tried to flee up some stairs, he followed her, leaned over a railing and killed her.
During the Clinton administration, an undeclared war was fought ostensibly to protect Muslims from ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Herzegovinia. During the Bush (43) administration, a war of retaliation for the World Trade Center attack was fought against the Taliban in Afghanistan (and the bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma City which was alleged to have connections to Iraq). In 2002, reporter Daniel Pearl was kidnapped and murdered. The list of atrocities, wanton slaughter and beheadings by Muslims goes on in the Middle East today – none of whom by the way are extremists Muslims, only the faithful. Countless unsuccessful attacks on American soil were planned by Muslims and thwarted only at the last moment by luck or good intelligence. None of the above even begins to document hundreds of Muslim attacks in the rest of the world.
There is the mounting evidence in the minds of many that TWA Flight 800 was shot down by a missile. Can you remember another incident that occurred at the Oklahoma University Stadium, a bombing attempt intended to inflict massive carnage to sports fans in a packed stadium? That incident was also linked to the same Islamic influences of one of the 9/11hijackers.
http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23564
What about the Egypt Air plane crash which killed 217? A few courageous analysts revisited the chilling 1999 disaster in which the Egyptian co-pilot, a devout Muslim, reportedly had said "Allah Akbar," Arabic for "God is great," before the plane plunged to its destruction.
And then there is the issue of the bombing by Timothy McVeigh of the Oklahoma City federal building in 1995 that killed 168 people. Jayna Davis, a former investigative reporter for the NBC affiliate KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, gathered massive evidence of a foreign conspiracy involving Saudi terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, including hundreds of court records, 24 sworn witness statements and reports from law enforcement, intelligence and terror experts, all of which she turned over to the FBI, which refused even to accept the material. Apparently in 1995, even the FBI was unwilling to accept the premise that Islam, the "religion of peace," could motivate individuals through its teachings to that level of unspeakable depravity. To an educated, civilized mind, whether secular, Jewish or Christian, it was inconceivable.
For an amazing journey back into the archives of terrorism in the United States, find a copy of "The Third Terrorist: The Middle East Connection to the Oklahoma City Bombing" (Hardcover or Paperback) by Jayna Davis, 2004. It is available through Amazon.com and retail book stores.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0785261036/sr=1-2/qid=1155303828/ref=pd_bbs_2/104-9931552-9675952?ie=UTF8&s=books
Despite Clinton impeachment prosecutor David Schippers' revelation that he was "thoroughly convinced that there was a dead-bang Middle Eastern connection in the Oklahoma City bombing" – the press was, by and large, immune from revisiting such stories, beyond reporting the official government conclusions. Only U.S. News & World Report, in a tiny news item buried in its "Washington Whispers" column, saw fit to report that some top Defense Department officials believe Timothy McVeigh, executed for his role in the bombing of the Oklahoma City federal building, was an Iraqi agent.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110002217
http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110002216
http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22122
Liberal intellectuals in the United States and Europe still foolishly believe al-Qaida’s call for global jihad is the triggering mechanism that acts as an inspiration for the terrorism - which is utter nonsense. (Disclaimer: Each and every person who reads this article must realize that somebody who feels the need to be politically correct, whether out of fear or timidity, cannot by definition speak with honesty.) Forget everything you’ve been told about political correctness and the babble that not all Muslims are Islamic extremists.
Killing and/or subjugating infidels is the single mainstream core belief of Islam – statement of fact! War with Islam, death to infidels and subjugation of non-believers as “dhimmi” constitute the impenetrable hard core about which all Muslim’s form their belief system. Disagree naively out of ignorance and at your own peril. Suffer the same fate as Israel who tried to trade land for peace if you choose. Congressional victims of America’s public education system and the main stream media will soon begin saying what the Democratic Party faithful have been saying all along - there is no threat to the United States from the “Religion of Peace.” Believing any of them is a mistake. The threat to the United States, and Americans in particular, is real and will continue to exist. Why? Because peaceful coexistence with Muslims as equals in a pluralistic society is not one of our choices. Our choices as unbelievers only include three options - accepting Islam, accepting institutionalized inferior status known as dhimmi, or war with Islam.
Negotiation of any other outcome is not possible with the “Religion of Peace,” nor is it permitted by the precepts of Islam, except as a stalling tactic until such day as adherents of Islam feel they have the strength to reassert themselves. Once again, negotiation by Israel, the nations of Europe or the United Nations with Islam is not possible. Win decisively, or at the risk of the rest of humanity, attempt to negotiate and lose inevitably and violently.
Muhammad says that Muslim faithful are “commanded to fight against people” until they become Muslim, and that those who resist risk forfeiting their lives and property. Violent jihad warfare against unbelievers is not a heretical doctrine held by a tiny minority of extremists as the media and Muslim apologists would have you believe, but a constant element – the axle about which all mainstream Islamic theology revolves. In addition, the “gates of ijtihad,” or free inquiry into the Qur’an and Islamic tradition, has been closed for centuries. Islamic teaching on principal matters is settled and is not permitted to be called into question by the faithful. The Qur’an is not just a theology to the Muslim faithful; it’s is also the law.
A British police official speculated that the Muslim suspects in the most recent terrorist plot may be “homegrown.” Even if all of the suspects were not British citizens, it is totally irrelevant if the suspects were or were not British citizens. They were Muslims. Muslims have no nationalistic allegiance to anything – no country, no government, no geographic region, and even no family - just Islam. You need no other evidence that their willingness to sacrifice their children in the name of Allah. Muslims do not recognize any concept of nationalism or national boundaries – only world-wide Islamic dominion according to the precepts of the Qur’an.
The AP article on August 10th also informed us that as far back as 1995, al-Qaida attempted “to use liquid explosives to blow up a dozen airliners as they flew across the Pacific Ocean to U.S. destinations, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Honolulu and New York.” Rodolfo Mendoza, a police intelligence official in the Philippines, pointed out the obvious - that the latest plot to blow up commercial airliners simply reveals the group’s unwavering and never-ending resolve – to kill all who Islam considers infidels. “These people are obsessed,” Mendoza was reported to have said. “They will try and try and try again to accomplish their mission.”
The greatest lie of the 21st Century will be, “Islam is a religion of peace.” Knowing and accepting that to be Islam’s public relations Trojan Horse, then recognize that the conflict in the Middle East between Iran, Syria and Israel is nothing less than a war to the death (or conversion, or subjugation as dhimmi), between Islam and the infidels of Judaism and Christianity. The thousands of Christians in the Middle East who have not been protected within the borders of Israel have already been systematically repressed and many brutally slain.
The main stream media and the United Nations would have you believe that Lebanon is a sovereign nation. However, the reality is that Lebanon ceased to exist as a viable independent political entity over a decade ago and its Christian population have been undergoing intense repression. Lebanon has been assimilated by the Muslim “borg.” Today, Lebanon is a delusional figment of international imagination, a government that exists in name only at the pleasure and humor of Tehran. Lebanon was once what many thought was a paradise. Today Lebanon is only the name of a piece of ground upon which the initial battles of the Islamic Wars in the Middle East are being waged. Muslims wish that the battles were being waged inside Israeli borders, as do many in Europe and the United Nations. Fortunately Israel may have other ideas and hopefully it has strong survival instincts.
Win decisively or lose inevitably. Anything less than the defeat of Iran and Syria will be seen by Muslims as a profound defeat of Israel and the United States, which is the principal reason why liberal secular Israelites, Europeans and Americans will tragically try to prevent Israel from winning decisively.
The latest foiled international terrorist plot was only the latest attempt of Muslims to extend their Islamic Wars with all of humanity beyond the Middle East and inside the borders of the United States.
There is some potentially good news coming out of the United Nations. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is reported to be pushing the U.N. Security Council to come up with a plan for ending what Kofi Annan describes as “Israel's conflict” with Iran’s Hezbollah guerrillas based in Lebanon. This can only mean Israel must be gaining the upper hand. In a statement, Kofi Annan's office said the Secretary-General is working "very intensely" on reaching a resolution acceptable to both Israel and Lebanon. He repeated his call to end the fighting and "save civilians on both sides from the nightmare they have endured for the past four weeks."
It should be noted that Lebanon wields no independent power nor controls its own territory and that which is not currently occupied by the IDF is commanded by agents of Iran (Hezbollah) and Syria. "The Secretary-General believes that it ought to be possible for the Security Council to adopt a resolution by the end of the week," his office said. Such a ceasefire, if agreed upon by Israel, would give Iran ample time to re-supply both itself and Hezbollah with more weapons, re-organize on the battlefield, redeploy Hezbollah and Kaytusha rockets advantageously, communicate strategy with Hezbollah and Syria, and set new terrorist objectives.
Watch closely - those who fervently seek the defeat of Israel will most strongly advocate such a cease fire.
Red State Patriot
 « Close It
Posted August 11, 2006 01:16 PM Permalink
Read more on Articles - Red State Patriot
~ Islam, Terrorism and WMD
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Does any serious person believe that Iran will surrender its nuclear ambitions?
Does any serious person believe that Iran will surrender its nuclear ambitions? The fact is, US policy makers have...
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Its Scope was Ruthlessly Ambitious
MSNBC aired on August 10th a news analysis published by the Associated Press (AP) entitled, “Thwarted plot may have...
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